A new research model aims to predict influenza admissions to Nottingham City hospital.
Professor Roger Finch (professor of infectious diseases, Nottingham City hospital) said that he and his colleagues will combine data from Reckitt and Colman's 'Flu Forecast model and from sales at Boots the Chemists. They will then try to determine whether there is any correlation between sales of medicines for colds and the number of hospital admissions.
The 'Flu Forecast model predicts sales of cold remedies up to five weeks in advance using data from GP databases, previous product sales figures from various retailers and weather information.
A spokesman for Reckitt and Colman told The Journal on November 30 that the model had been accurate to within 5 per cent over the last two seasons. Between 10 and 15 Boots stores in the hospital's catchment area will provide sales figures for cough, cold, sore throat and decongestant products in both pharmacy-only and general sale categories.
The model will be tested in December and January and, if successful, information will be shared with other NHS trusts, Professor Finch says.