Isaac Asimov was a prolific writer of all manner of fiction and non-fiction. He was born in Russia, but his parents emigrated to the United States when he was aged three. Isaac graduated in chemistry at Columbia university and practised as a biochemist. He is more noted, however, as a writer of science fiction and as a commentator on social problems.
In 1975 he published an essay entitled "The coming age of age", which was reprinted in 1983 in a collection called ‘The roving mind'. This essay is of interest because it predicted the state of society in the year 2000, something which Asimov himself was unable to experience, since he died in 1992.
"Suppose", he wrote, "that the world reaches the apocalyptic year of 2000 with society intact, with humanity secure, and with the future bright." He observed that this was not a foregone conclusion, but a picture clouded by threats of a rising population, declining resources, growing pollution, which might spell a collective course of mankind towards catastrophe. Asimov hoped that our population problem would have come by 2000 near enough to a solution to permit survival of our society. An estimated world population of six billion, he argued, should have warned us that it must rise no further but must fall by some means. The goal should be negative population growth in the 21st century. By 2000 the depletion of oil reserves would necessitate substantial new energy sources, for which advancing technology would be essential.
By 2000, wrote Asimov, mankind would have to face a society in which the percentage of young people in the total population would be smaller than ever before, with an increase in the older element. In past societies people older than 40 were in a distinct minority, but the aged, few by our standards, were highly valued because they preserved knowledge of the past in the absence of widespread literacy and electronic know-how. Indeed, old people were not seen generally as a burden on society but were accepted as the responsibility of the younger and more active citizens.
During the 19th century life-expectancy increased through the advance of new medical techniques and health practices. To control the resulting rise in unemployment the notion of retirement at an arbitrary age was introduced, to create jobs for the younger members of society. However, by depriving older people of work which gave meaning to their lives, we have failed to act humanely and turned our backs on creativity. Human society, warns Asimov, will have to change its intolerant youth-centred attitude and discard destructive and unjustified age distinctions. Education for the old is almost as important as for the young, to maintain resilience and restore a creative instinct throughout life. Universities open to students of all ages must offer education which is creative and not designed to render individuals content with humdrum repetitive labour.
Asimov fears that as lifetimes become extended gene patterns in the human race may change. There is some risk that the evolution of our species may go into reverse to such an extent that we may not be able to reckon with a changing terrestrial and social environment, and may suffer in consequence. We face a formidable task, he says. Taking these considerations into account, it requires a formidable optimism to extend a welcome to the third millennium.