From Mr A. E. Humfress, MRPharmS
SIR,-The recent publication by the Office for National Statistics of the spring, 2000, edition of "Population trends" helps throw some light on the subject of breeding. This is available free from www.statistics.gov.uk. Miss Taylor (PJ, May 27, p810) and Mr Morris (PJ, June 10, p883) both seem to believe that child allowance and other factors are promoting overpopulation. However, the statistics show that the UK total fertility rate per woman is 1.7, way below the replacement level of 2.1 necessary to maintain the current population. The population of the UK is increasing, but this is due to the inward migration of women of childbearing age. The projection is that it may increase to a peak of 65 million in 2036 and then decrease.
A low total fertility rate is common to most of the more developed countries. The average is only 1.57, with Italy, I believe, the lowest in the world at 1.2. All the other main areas of the world have a figure higher than the replacement level, resulting in an increasing world population, though the good news is that the rate of increase is falling faster that expected. The particular problem for the more developed countries, which Mr Grabecki mentions (PJ, June 24, p952), is than their working populations are set to decrease at the same time as a need for a large increase in spending on pensions and health for the elderly.
A. E. Humfress
London NW3