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The industry
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The industryConditions in the developing world could deteriorateFrom Dr N. D Harris, FRPharmS Umesh Patel in his letter “Lucrative me-too drugs a priority” (PJ, 10 May, p648) is taking an all-too-common, simplistic view of the pharmaceutical industry. Apart from the fact that “me-too” drugs provide a useful income flow to fund research, they also help to drive down prices, to everyone’s benefit. More importantly, I have serious reservations about the way in which aid to developing countries, including non-profitable orphan drugs, is currently approached. When an effective antimalarial vaccine is available and delivered in the fairly near future, I am afraid that no one will have done any real planning for the consequences. The fundamental problem is that defeating malaria and other infectious diseases, and providing clean water, safe and adequate food supplies, etc, will produce a dramatic increase in the demand for currently scarce resources. This is because the greatest impact will be on children and the elderly, who are the most vulnerable sections of any society. These groups are also the principal consumers of special medical and nutritional care. Clearly, the preservation of life and improving its quality are highly desirable outcomes, but the increase in the proportion of young, fertile individuals in the population will inevitably rapidly lead to a massive population increase, ultimately doubling every 20 years, if the demographers are right. Unless there is a major investment in the whole infrastructure — doctors, nurses, teachers, houses, food supplies, transport, etc — simultaneously with effective administration of any public health measures, the only outcome will be even more people living in misery. Although this cannot be a reason to deny improvements in public health, it seems likely that the total investment required will be much greater than that of relatively simple measures such as malaria eradication and the provision of clean water. I am a natural optimist, not a doom merchant, but unless we foresee the consequences of any intervention and manage change carefully there will be a desperate deterioration in conditions in the developing world — our present famines will pale in comparison. I have seen no indication of a debate on these issues or, notably, on how the resources will be provided. Norman Harris
Defending the indefensible
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