Increasing incidence of obesity could lead to a fall in life expectancy
There is no shortage of reports of the enormous rise in the incidence of obesity these days. And there is also no shortage of warnings that being overweight is a recipe for disaster.
In the New England Journal of Medicine for 17 March a report of research
by 10 experts from Chicago and Boston indicates that
by the year 2050 the extension of life expectancy in the US, which has
been rising since 1900, could level off or decline, not through a heedless
attitude to the environment but through an explosive increase in obesity,
especially in childhood. If these fears are true, then future generations
may become sicker and die earlier than their parents, for the first time
in recorded history.
It is forecast that one in eight children aged six to 19 years will prove
to be overweight, with a body mass index of 25 to 30, and, when adult,
will rank as obese, with a BMI exceeding 30. The health implications
of obesity include an increased incidence of diabetes, which carries
complications of heart disease, stroke, loss of limbs, kidney failure
and blindness, and also hypertension, asthma, cancer and gastrointestinal
disorders. Methods of treating such chronic illnesses are, to be sure,
improving with the passing of time, but where access to health care is
limited, the negative effect of obesity on life expectancy will continue.
Reversal of the effect may take decades, even if it is taken in hand
immediately.
Meanwhile, it is a healthy sign that close attention is being paid to
the improvement of school meals, discouragement of children from eating
junk foods, and their encouragement to indulge in physical exercises.
Their elders, regrettably, show a great reluctance to abandon a lazy
attitude to daily living. Perhaps the growing attitude to smoking is
a hopeful sign, but there are still far too many commercial interests,
particularly in the field of ready-made foods, that are impeding progress
towards a healthier lifestyle.
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