Pandemic? Don't panic
That the world is overdue an influenza pandemic is without question. What remains unknown is whether the flu virus involved will be a variant of existing human flu viruses or a mutation of the avian flu virus that is beginning to wreak political havoc although the biological and medical problems are not on the same scale.
Evidence is mounting that the most lethal flu virus of the last century — leading
to the flu pandemic of 1918–19 — was caused by an avian-type
flu virus, as reported in Nature. The other two pandemics of the 20th
century were a result of the natural changes seen in flu viruses every
year.
Nevertheless, although it is possible that the avian flu virus may mutate
into a lethal human virus, it is not a certainty, as some media reports
would have us believe. For a start, the avian flu virus H5N1 has been
known about since 1997 when it caused problems in Hong Kong. It has probably
been around for much longer without having been recognised by the international
veterinary or scientific communities.
Certainly there is a risk — although it may be quite small — that
somebody may develop an ordinary human flu and come into contact with
the avian flu virus at the same time. This is most likely to happen in
a poor rural community in the Far East, where it is common to live in
close proximity to livestock. The unlucky person might then go on to
develop a variant avian-type disease from the resulting viral soup. Whether
or not this happens is the question.
Assuming this scenario is more or less accurate, scientists in the West
should have nearly six months in which to develop a vaccine to the new,
more virulent flu strain, before it spreads from the East. Moreover,
there is a school of thought that suggests that while an H5N1-derived
flu virus will be more virulent than normal flu viruses, it is not likely
to lead to the high mortality faced by humans who have been unlucky enough
to contract H5N1 from birds to date.
And although this virus would be a killer, the world’s understanding
of flu and flu viruses is much greater than it was in 1918–19.
Basic hygiene is greatly improved, which can do a lot to prevent an individual
contracting the disease, and there are antivirals that mitigate the symptoms
of flu and powerful treatments to manage the complications. And the world,
although distracted by war and other catastrophes, is not on its knees
in the way it was nearly a century ago.
This is not meant to be complacent in any way. People who are eligible
for vaccination this year should take up the offer and we must trust
that 21st century health care will protect most of the rest of us.
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