The Pharmaceutical Journal
Vol 276 No 7398 p498
29 April 2006

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Pandemic outcome predicted

In an influenza pandemic, antiviral prophylaxis within affected households combined with school closures could limit the number of clinical infections by 40 to 50 per cent, provided that there is enough antiviral medicine for 50 per cent of the population. This is the prediction, using mathematical modelling, of researchers based in the UK and US (published online in Nature, 26 April 2006).

They say that more widespread prophylaxis (eg, in the school or workplace) might reduce influenza rates by more than 75 per cent. They also suggest pre-vaccination (even if not matched exactly to the pandemic strain) might reduce attack rates substantially.