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Vol 277 No 7428 p627
25 November 2006

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Stockpile zanamivir in case of pandemic, say experts

Pandemic influenza report

The report recommends stockpiling zanamivir as a second line of defence

Influenza experts are calling on the Government to stockpile a second antiviral drug — zanamivir (Relenza) — as part of its preparations for a flu pandemic in the light of emerging evidence that the avian influenza virus H5N1 can develop resistance to oseltamivir (Tamiflu).

The Royal Society and the Academy of Medical Sciences this week published a report “Pandemic influenza: science to policy” (PDF 1MB), which urges the Government to revisit its decision to stockpile only one antiviral drug. Sir John Skehel, vice-president of the Academy of Medical Sciences and chairman of the report’s working group, said: “The Government was right to order Tamiflu in early 2005. However, we are concerned that it is not updating its plans as the landscape of what we know about influenza changes.”

The report also recommends the appointment of a leading influenza specialist as a high-level independent adviser to the Government.

The need for further research into methods of increasing the effectiveness of pandemic flu vaccines is also highlighted in the report. It recommends that the Department of Health should take the lead in assembling a work programme with industry and academia for the development of new adjuvants for vaccines.

The working group hopes that its recommendations will inform the Government’s revision of its pandemic influenza contingency plan, to be disseminated early next year.

In response to the report, Lindsey Davies, director of pandemic influenza preparedness at the DoH, said: “We are already addressing many of the report’s recommendations in our ongoing pandemic preparedness planning.” She added that the DoH’s antiviral strategy is informed by international consensus and expert advice, and the current stockpile should be adequate to treat all those who fall ill in a pandemic of similar proportions to those in the 20th century.

Resistance to oseltamivir

Limited observations on the use of oseltamivir in humans infected with H5N1 highlight the possibility that extensive use could generate large numbers of resistant viruses, the report says. It adds that observations that oseltamivir resistance occurs in H5N1 viruses that retain sensitivity to zanamivir suggest that both drugs should be in the UK stockpile. There are also indications that higher doses of oseltamivir will be necessary for the successful treatment of H5N1, and therefore a larger stockpile may be required of both drugs, it says. The stockpile needs to be large enough for multiple waves of a pandemic since the interval between waves may not be long enough to manufacture and purchase more antivirals. The DoH currently has a stockpile of 14.6 million courses of oseltamivir, enough to treat 25 per cent of the population.

In a statement, Roche (the manufacturer of Tamiflu) said that only three cases of avian influenza in humans have shown reduced susceptibility to oseltamivir; two patients were treated outside the recommended 48 hours and one was treated with a sub-optimal dose. In addition, it says, resistant mutations of the H5N1 virus have been detected in two patients after treatment with oseltamivir but the mutation led to reduced transmissibility.

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