Summer heat poses increasing risks; winter deaths likely to fall
Heatwaves pose an increasing risk to the health of people in the UK, according to a report on the health effects of climate change published by the Health Protection Agency and the Department of Health this week. However, winter deaths will continue to decline as the climate warms, the report adds.
The report predicts that over the next 10 years, there is a 25 per cent chance that the south-east of England will experience a serious heatwave that leads to 3,000 immediate heat-related deaths, with more than 6,350 deaths throughout that summer. The report says that the risk is high in terms of conventional thinking about risks to health.
In a preface to the report, health minister Dawn Primarolo highlights key areas for the NHS to address in order to respond to climate change. They include: adapting the health and social care infrastructure (eg, hospitals and nursing homes) to be more resilient to the effects of heat, gales and floods; developing local heatwave, gale and flood plans for coping with disasters; and increasing awareness of how people can adapt to changes in climate.
The report looks at the possible consequences if no action is taken to avoid significant climate change this century. An increase in mean temperature of between 2.5C and 3C is predicted by 2100 with periods of cold weather becoming less common and heatwaves becoming more frequent. Malaria outbreaks in England are likely to remain rare and easily controlled but health authorities need to remain alert to the possibility of outbreaks in continental Europe and the possibility that different species of mosquito may arrive in the UK. Prompt reaction to any outbreaks will reduce the chance of endemic malaria transmission in the UK, it says. The report recommends that a surveillance system is set up for monitoring the distribution and abundance of arthropod vectors in the UK.
Although concentrations of a number of important pollutants are likely to decline over the next half-century, the concentration of ozone at ground level is likely to increase, which could lead to up to 1,500 extra respiratory-related deaths and hospital admissions per year, says the report. Because of the thinning of the ozone layer, and reductions in cloud cover, increased exposure to sunlight is expected to lead to a rise in skin cancers. Warmer weather is predicted to cause up to 14,000 more cases of food poisoning per year.
The report was written by an expert panel and provides an update on the findings of the Government’s first report on the health effects of climate change in the UK, published in 2002. It was issued as a draft for comment last year (PJ, 12 May 2007, p546).
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